By Hari D. Sharma, Ph.D. F ASCE
I will begin with a few examples of extreme weather-related occurrences during the year2021 before talking about what we can expect for the year 2022 and beyond. These are presented below.
Heat Waves, Droughts, Wild fires and Floods during the year 2021: Heat Waves: On July 23, 2021, Professor Denning of Colorado State University mentioned that heat waves in the Pacific Northwest and Canada broke records in the North American West. This resulted in even the melting of street car power lines in Portland. Also, in Canada, the small mountain town of Lytton, in June 2021, registered 121 0 F temperature exceeding Canada’s heat records. All this resulted in over 600 heat-related deaths in North American West. Additionally, these extreme temperatures resulted in enormous wild fires sending smoke across North America. According to NOAA, June and August of 2021 in the Midwestern region of United States, were abnormally warm resulting in worsening drought conditions. At the same time, in the eastern part of the Midwestern US during this time period experienced, “widespread flash flooding.” Experts are of the opinion that these extreme heat waves, wild fires, and floods are due to global warming caused climate change.
Climate Change and its Impacts: Climate change is the long-term variations in weather conditions. Solar energy warms the Earth and its atmosphere while atmospheric gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapors and others, called greenhouse gases (GHGs), play an important role on how heat is retained on the Earth and within its atmosphere. An excess amount of GHGs in atmosphere can cause too much heating of the Earth (termed: global warming) resulting in more frequent and intense rainfall in some areas, droughts in other areas, rise in sea levels in coastal areas and more frequent and intense storms. There is general agreement in the scientific community that post-industrial period human activities, such as, industrial activities emitting CO2, CH4 from landfills, etc.), are primarily responsible for climate change due to a significant increase in atmospheric GHGs. This means both mitigative (GHG reduction) and adaptive (helping adversely impacted) actions need to be taken soon.
Mitigative Measures: These measures mean controlling the emissions of GHGs, such as CO2, into the atmosphere For this, since the mid-1990s, the United Nations (UN) has been bringing together annually almost all UN countries for climate submit called the Conference of Parties (COP). Its first meeting was held in 1995 in Berlin and since then during yearly meetings various climate change issues have been discussed. For example, the COP 21 conference was held in Paris in 2015 when for the first time “every UN member country agreed to work together to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees and aim for 1.5 degrees (Celsius)” above pre-industrial level temperature. This agreement, called the Paris Agreement, is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. To achieve this 1.50 C long-term temperature goal, all member countries aim to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 by limiting GHG emissions as soon as possible. In COP 26 held in 2021 in Glasgow, countries communicated their progress on GHG emissions and their future plans. A few countries presented their plans to meet the Paris agreement goal but many countries did not while others who did not submit their plans will do so in 2022.
Fear and Hope for the Year 2022 and Beyond: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the world’s authoritative scientific assessment on climate change. Its latest assessment involved assessment work by 721 scientists from 90 countries in three working groups: the first assessment report of August 2021 showed that if we look at the current GHG emissions and existing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere “the world will probably reach or exceed 1.50 C of warming” by around 2040. Therefore, it will be necessary to control CO2 emissions by taking aggressive actions today. Otherwise, the global temperature will rise 2.40C by 2050 and could warm up by 4.40C above preindustrial level by the end 2100.
It should be recognized that these earlier mentioned extreme weather conditions happened when global warming was just 1.10C (1.980F). With the future estimated temperature scenarios extreme wildfires, flooding, and storms will exacerbate human sufferings; therefore, controlling them will require more global climate actions be taken by all nations on an urgent basis. It is hoped that during COP 27, to be held in 2022 in Egypt, all parties will agree to control GHG emissions in a timely manner; if not we will be heading towards a disastrous scenario.
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Dr. Hari Sharma is a Civil and Geo-environmental engineering expert turned author. His seventh and most recent book is titled, “Climate Change and Leadership Shaping Civilizations.” His website is: haridsharma.com